Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Raheem MostertRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Dolphins vs. Panthers
Right now, Raheem Mostert’s rushing yards prop is set at 77.5 yards (-133/-103).
The public has bet the OVER up to 77.5 (-133) after it opened @ 73.5 (-115).
Pros
- With a 14-point advantage, the Dolphins are overwhelmingly favored in this game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on rushing than their standard approach.
- Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dolphins to run on 45.1% of their downs: the 7th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
- In this week’s contest, Raheem Mostert is predicted by the model to find himself in the 90th percentile among running backs with 16.8 rush attempts.
- Raheem Mostert has rushed for substantially more adjusted yards per game (65.0) this season than he did last season (54.0).
- The Carolina Panthers defense has produced the worst efficiency against opposing run games this year, allowing 5.90 adjusted yards-per-carry.
Cons
- At the moment, the 7th-slowest paced offense in football (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Miami Dolphins.
Projection
THE BLITZ
73
Rushing Yards
73
Rushing Yards
