Week 6 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Raheem Mostert from EV Insight

Raheem MostertRushing Yards

Right now, Raheem Mostert’s rushing yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-112/-118).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 56.5 (-118) after it opened @ 59.5 (-115).

Pros

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects Raheem Mostert to total 16.5 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 89th percentile among running backs.
Raheem Mostert has received 54.9% of his team’s carries this year, ranking him in the 88th percentile among RBs.
The Miami Dolphins have faced a stacked the box on a measly 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Miami Dolphins have gone no-huddle on 13.9% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-most in the league). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.

Cons

The Miami Dolphins will be forced to use backup QB Skylar Thompson in this week’s game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Dolphins are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 4th-most sluggish paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.95 seconds per play.
The Minnesota Vikings defense boasts the 9th-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, yielding just 4.29 yards-per-carry.
The Minnesota Vikings defensive tackles profile as the best DT corps in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.

Projection

THE BLITZ
74
Rushing Yards