NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Raheem MostertRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Dolphins vs. Vikings
Right now, Raheem Mostert’s rushing yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-112/-118).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 56.5 (-118) after it opened @ 59.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects Raheem Mostert to total 16.5 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 89th percentile among running backs.
- Raheem Mostert has received 54.9% of his team’s carries this year, ranking him in the 88th percentile among RBs.
- The Miami Dolphins have faced a stacked the box on a measly 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Miami Dolphins have gone no-huddle on 13.9% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-most in the league). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.
Cons
- The Miami Dolphins will be forced to use backup QB Skylar Thompson in this week’s game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Dolphins are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 4th-most sluggish paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.95 seconds per play.
- The Minnesota Vikings defense boasts the 9th-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, yielding just 4.29 yards-per-carry.
- The Minnesota Vikings defensive tackles profile as the best DT corps in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
74
Rushing Yards
74
Rushing Yards
