NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Rachaad WhiteRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Buccaneers vs. Lions
Right now, Rachaad White’s rushing yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 46.5 (-110) after it opened @ 45.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 6.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- In this week’s contest, Rachaad White is anticipated by the predictive model to find himself in the 85th percentile among RBs with 15.6 rush attempts.
- After taking on 33.7% of his team’s carries last season, Rachaad White has played a bigger part in the rushing attack this season, currently accounting for 55.9%.
- Rachaad White has run for many more adjusted yards per game (53.0) this season than he did last season (30.0).
Cons
- The Buccaneers are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Buccaneers are anticipated by the projection model to run just 62.9 plays on offense in this game: the 7th-fewest on the slate this week.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 56.2 plays per game.
- When talking about run support (and the effect it has on all run game metrics), the O-line of the Buccaneers ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL last year.
- The Lions defense has produced the best efficiency against opposing running games this year, surrendering just 3.04 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
Projection
THE BLITZ
64
Rushing Yards
64
Rushing Yards
