Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Justice HillRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Titans vs. Ravens
Right now, Justice Hill’s rushing yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-118/-109).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 25.5 (-109) after it opened @ 26.5 (-114).
Pros
- This game’s line indicates a rushing game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 5 points.
- The predictive model expects the Ravens to be the 3rd-most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 48.2% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- Justice Hill has been a more integral piece of his offense’s ground game this year (23.7% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (11.1%).
- Justice Hill’s 32.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year indicates a a substantial gain in his rushing talent over last year’s 19.0 figure.
- When it comes to the defensive ends’ role in run defense, Tennessee’s group of DEs has been awful this year, ranking as the 4th-worst in football. in football.
Cons
- The Ravens have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 2.3% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The projections expect the Ravens to call the 10th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans defense boasts the 10th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, yielding just 3.89 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
Projection
THE BLITZ
31
Rushing Yards
31
Rushing Yards
