Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Josh JacobsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Raiders vs. Patriots
Right now, Josh Jacobs’s rushing yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 69.5 (-110) after it opened @ 68.5 (-114).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 128.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The model projects Josh Jacobs to accumulate 19.2 carries in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 99th percentile among RBs.
- Josh Jacobs has been given 78.9% of his team’s rush attempts this year, placing him in the 99th percentile when it comes to RBs.
- The Las Vegas offensive line profiles as the 3rd-best in football last year at opening holes for runners.
Cons
- The projections expect the Raiders as the 7th-least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 39.2% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- The Raiders have run the 5th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a mere 53.0 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Josh Jacobs has rushed for many fewer adjusted yards per game (47.0) this season than he did last season (100.0).
- Josh Jacobs’s 2.9 adjusted yards per carry this season indicates a a substantial regression in his rushing prowess over last season’s 5.0 mark.
Projection
THE BLITZ
85
Rushing Yards
85
Rushing Yards
