Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jonathan TaylorRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Jaguars vs. Colts
Right now, Jonathan Taylor’s rushing yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 43.5 (-110) after it opened @ 45.5 (-110).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect the Colts offensive gameplan to skew 1.7% more towards the run game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with head coach Shane Steichen now calling the plays.
- Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts to run on 43.9% of their downs: the 8th-highest clip on the slate this week.
- The leading projections forecast the Colts to call the 3rd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.4 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- The Indianapolis Colts have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 61.0 plays per game.
- With a fantastic record of 74.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (96th percentile), Jonathan Taylor rates as one of the leading pure runners in football since the start of last season.
Cons
- The Colts are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
- The model projects Jonathan Taylor to be a much smaller part of his team’s rushing attack this week (44.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (62.4% in games he has played).
- The opposing side have rushed for the 5th-fewest adjusted yards in the league (just 84.0 per game) versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
59
Rushing Yards
59
Rushing Yards
