Week 6 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Jonathan Taylor from EV Insight

Jonathan TaylorRushing Yards

Right now, Jonathan Taylor’s rushing yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 43.5 (-110) after it opened @ 45.5 (-110).

Pros

Our trusted projections expect the Colts offensive gameplan to skew 1.7% more towards the run game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with head coach Shane Steichen now calling the plays.
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts to run on 43.9% of their downs: the 8th-highest clip on the slate this week.
The leading projections forecast the Colts to call the 3rd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.4 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 61.0 plays per game.
With a fantastic record of 74.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (96th percentile), Jonathan Taylor rates as one of the leading pure runners in football since the start of last season.

Cons

The Colts are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
The model projects Jonathan Taylor to be a much smaller part of his team’s rushing attack this week (44.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (62.4% in games he has played).
The opposing side have rushed for the 5th-fewest adjusted yards in the league (just 84.0 per game) versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
59
Rushing Yards