Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Joe MixonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Saints vs. Bengals
Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 61.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 61.5 (-115) after it opened @ 60.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Bengals are a 3-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to accumulate 17.3 carries in this contest, on average, putting him in the 95th percentile among running backs.
- Joe Mixon has grinded out 61.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the biggest marks in the league among RBs (80th percentile).
- Opposing teams have rushed for the 9th-most yards in football (130 per game) versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year.
- The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 4th-least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 37.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 7th-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.51 seconds per play.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to be much less involved in his offense’s run game this week (70.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (85.0% in games he has played).
- The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year at blocking for rushers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
73
Rushing Yards
73
Rushing Yards
