NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Jerome FordRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Browns vs. 49ers
Right now, Jerome Ford’s rushing yards prop is set at 36.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 36.5 (-110) after it opened @ 35.5 (-114).
Pros
- The predictive model expects the Cleveland Browns to be the 9th-most run-oriented team in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 41.8% run rate.
- The 2nd-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Browns this year (a massive 66.2 per game on average).
- The weather forecast calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
- The model projects Jerome Ford to be a much bigger part of his offense’s running game in this week’s game (46.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (36.3% in games he has played).
- When it comes to executing run-blocking assignments (and the influence it has on all run game metrics), the O-line of the Browns profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL last year.
Cons
- The Cleveland Browns will be rolling out backup QB PJ Walker this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- This week’s line indicates a throwing game script for the Browns, who are -6.5-point underdogs.
- The predictive model expects the Browns to call the fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.6 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- Since the start of last season, the anemic 49ers run defense has been torched for a massive 3.50 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to opposing offenses: the 31st-highest rate in the league.
- As it relates to the linebackers’ role in stopping the run, San Francisco’s collection of LBs has been fantastic this year, profiling as the 8th-best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
51
Rushing Yards
51
Rushing Yards
