Week 6 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Jerome Ford

Jerome FordRushing Yards

Right now, Jerome Ford’s rushing yards prop is set at 36.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 36.5 (-110) after it opened @ 35.5 (-114).

Pros

The predictive model expects the Cleveland Browns to be the 9th-most run-oriented team in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 41.8% run rate.
The 2nd-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Browns this year (a massive 66.2 per game on average).
The weather forecast calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The model projects Jerome Ford to be a much bigger part of his offense’s running game in this week’s game (46.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (36.3% in games he has played).
When it comes to executing run-blocking assignments (and the influence it has on all run game metrics), the O-line of the Browns profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL last year.

Cons

The Cleveland Browns will be rolling out backup QB PJ Walker this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
This week’s line indicates a throwing game script for the Browns, who are -6.5-point underdogs.
The predictive model expects the Browns to call the fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.6 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
Since the start of last season, the anemic 49ers run defense has been torched for a massive 3.50 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to opposing offenses: the 31st-highest rate in the league.
As it relates to the linebackers’ role in stopping the run, San Francisco’s collection of LBs has been fantastic this year, profiling as the 8th-best in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
51
Rushing Yards