Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jeff WilsonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Falcons vs. 49ers
Right now, Jeff Wilson’s rushing yards prop is set at 66.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the OVER up to 66.5 (-110) after it opened @ 62.5 (-120).
Pros
- The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 6th-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 43.5% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Jeffery Wilson to notch 14.6 carries this week, on average, placing him in the 81st percentile among running backs.
- Jeffery Wilson has been a more integral piece of his team’s running game this season (51.5% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (27.9%).
- Jeffery Wilson has run for substantially more yards per game (78.0) this season than he did last season (50.0).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The San Francisco 49ers have called the 9th-least plays in the league this year, averaging just 56.6 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The San Francisco 49ers offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league this year at opening holes for runners.
- The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
64
Rushing Yards
64
Rushing Yards
