Week 6 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Isiah Pacheco from EV Insight

Isiah PachecoRushing Yards

Right now, Isiah Pacheco’s rushing yards prop is set at 76.5 yards (-129/-106).

The public has bet the OVER up to 76.5 (-129) after it opened @ 69.5 (-117).

Pros

With a 10.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are a massive favorite this week, suggesting much more of a reliance on running than their normal approach.
Windy weather conditions (like the 20-mph being projected in this game) generally lead to lessened passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and increased rush volume.
In this week’s game, Isiah Pacheco is expected by the model to position himself in the 88th percentile among running backs with 15.5 rush attempts.
Isiah Pacheco has rushed for substantially more adjusted yards per game (74.0) this year than he did last year (50.0).
Opposing offenses have run for the most adjusted yards in football (195 per game) against the Denver Broncos defense this year.

Cons

At the present time, the least run-oriented team in the league (30.7% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Chiefs.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to see only 125.7 offensive plays called: the 4th-lowest number among all games this week.

Projection

THE BLITZ
69
Rushing Yards