Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Isiah PachecoRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Chiefs vs. Broncos
Right now, Isiah Pacheco’s rushing yards prop is set at 76.5 yards (-129/-106).
The public has bet the OVER up to 76.5 (-129) after it opened @ 69.5 (-117).
Pros
- With a 10.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are a massive favorite this week, suggesting much more of a reliance on running than their normal approach.
- Windy weather conditions (like the 20-mph being projected in this game) generally lead to lessened passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and increased rush volume.
- In this week’s game, Isiah Pacheco is expected by the model to position himself in the 88th percentile among running backs with 15.5 rush attempts.
- Isiah Pacheco has rushed for substantially more adjusted yards per game (74.0) this year than he did last year (50.0).
- Opposing offenses have run for the most adjusted yards in football (195 per game) against the Denver Broncos defense this year.
Cons
- At the present time, the least run-oriented team in the league (30.7% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Chiefs.
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to see only 125.7 offensive plays called: the 4th-lowest number among all games this week.
Projection
THE BLITZ
69
Rushing Yards
69
Rushing Yards
