Week 6 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Ezekiel Elliott from EV Insight

Ezekiel ElliottRushing Yards

Right now, Ezekiel Elliott’s rushing yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 50.5 (-110) after it opened @ 51.5 (-120).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 9th-most run-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 41.6% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run among all games this week at 138.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Ezekiel Elliott to earn 16.5 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking in the 89th percentile among RBs.
Ezekiel Elliott has been given 61.7% of his offense’s carries this year, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.
Ezekiel Elliott has picked up 59.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the largest figures in the NFL among RBs (77th percentile).

Cons

The Dallas Cowboys will be rolling with backup quarterback Cooper Rush in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Cowboys are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Ezekiel Elliott’s rushing effectiveness (3.61 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football this year (20th percentile among RBs).
Ezekiel Elliott has been among the bottom RBs in the league at generating extra ground yardage, averaging a mere 2.62 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 22nd percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
69
Rushing Yards