Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Ezekiel ElliottRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Eagles vs. Cowboys
Right now, Ezekiel Elliott’s rushing yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 50.5 (-110) after it opened @ 51.5 (-120).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 9th-most run-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 41.6% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run among all games this week at 138.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Ezekiel Elliott to earn 16.5 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking in the 89th percentile among RBs.
- Ezekiel Elliott has been given 61.7% of his offense’s carries this year, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.
- Ezekiel Elliott has picked up 59.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the largest figures in the NFL among RBs (77th percentile).
Cons
- The Dallas Cowboys will be rolling with backup quarterback Cooper Rush in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Cowboys are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Ezekiel Elliott’s rushing effectiveness (3.61 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football this year (20th percentile among RBs).
- Ezekiel Elliott has been among the bottom RBs in the league at generating extra ground yardage, averaging a mere 2.62 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 22nd percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
69
Rushing Yards
69
Rushing Yards
