College Football Props of the Week: Week 4
Walter Waddell
D’Onta ForemanRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Bears vs. Vikings
Right now, D’Onta Foreman’s rushing yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the OVER up to 50.5 (-114) after it opened @ 48.5 (-114).
Pros
- Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bears to run on 50.4% of their opportunities: the 2nd-highest clip among all teams this week.
- Windy weather conditions (like the 17-mph being forecasted in this game) usually prompt lessened passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and higher run volume.
- In this game, D’Onta Foreman is predicted by the model to place in the 89th percentile among running backs with 16.6 rush attempts.
- The predictive model expects D’Onta Foreman to be much less involved in his offense’s run game in this contest (28.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (41.6% in games he has played).
- With an outstanding record of 55.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (80th percentile), D’Onta Foreman ranks as one of the best pure rushers in football since the start of last season.
Cons
- This week’s spread implies a throwing game script for the Bears, who are -3-point underdogs.
- At the present time, the 8th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Chicago Bears.
- The Minnesota Vikings defense has produced the 6th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, allowing just 3.65 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
- When it comes to the defensive tackles’ role in defending against the run, Minnesota’s collection of DTs has been excellent this year, grading out as the 5th-best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
71
Rushing Yards
71
Rushing Yards
