Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
David MontgomeryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Bears vs. Commanders
Right now, David Montgomery’s rushing yards prop is set at 63.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 63.5 (-120) after it opened @ 63.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 54.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to garner 18.2 carries in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile among running backs.
- The Chicago Bears have faced a stacked the box on just 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Chicago Bears have elected to go for it on 4th down 27.3% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-least plays run on the slate this week at 127.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Chicago Bears have called the least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 49.2 plays per game.
- David Montgomery has been a much smaller piece of his offense’s running game this season (43.9% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (74.1%).
- David Montgomery has run for many fewer yards per game (41.0) this season than he did last season (65.0).
- David Montgomery’s ground efficiency (3.52 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL this year (15th percentile among RBs).
Projection
THE BLITZ
74
Rushing Yards
74
Rushing Yards
