WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Dalvin CookRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Dolphins vs. Vikings
Right now, Dalvin Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 75.5 yards (-101/-135).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 75.5 (-135) after it opened @ 76.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 27.62 seconds per play.
- THE BLITZ projects Dalvin Cook to notch 17.0 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
- Dalvin Cook has received 71.7% of his offense’s carries this year, putting him in the 94th percentile among RBs.
- The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in football this year at opening holes for rushers.
Cons
- The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 8th-least run-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 35.5% run rate.
- Dalvin Cook has run for many fewer yards per game (72.0) this year than he did last year (89.0).
- The Miami Dolphins defensive ends grade out as the best collection of DEs in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.
- The Minnesota Vikings have been faced with a stacked the box on 20.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
75
Rushing Yards
75
Rushing Yards
