Week 6 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Chuba Hubbard from EV Insight

Chuba HubbardRushing Yards

Right now, Chuba Hubbard’s rushing yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 47.5 (-110) after it opened @ 45.5 (-110).

Pros

The 5th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Panthers this year (a monstrous 63.6 per game on average).
The projections expect Chuba Hubbard to earn 14.3 carries in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 80th percentile when it comes to running backs.
While Chuba Hubbard has been responsible for 26.8% of his offense’s rush attempts in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a more important option in Carolina’s rushing attack in this game at 59.3%.
The Carolina Panthers O-line grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL last year in run-blocking.
Chuba Hubbard has been among the leading running backs in the league at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging an outstanding 3.49 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 81st percentile.

Cons

The predictive model expects the Panthers offense to tilt 5.1% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Thomas Brown now calling the plays.
The Panthers are a massive 14-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Carolina Panthers as the 6th-least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 38.6% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Carolina Panthers are projected by the model to call only 62.9 plays on offense in this game: the 7th-fewest on the slate this week.
As it relates to the safeties’ role in run defense, Miami’s collection of safeties has been very good this year, projecting as the 3rd-best in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
63
Rushing Yards