Week 6 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Christian McCaffrey from EV Insight

Christian McCaffreyRushing Yards

Right now, Christian McCaffrey’s rushing yards prop is set at 76.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 76.5 (-110) after it opened @ 74.5 (-114).

Pros

A rushing game script is implied by the 49ers being a 6.5-point favorite in this game.
Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the 49ers to run on 47.4% of their chances: the 4th-highest frequency on the slate this week.
The leading projections forecast Christian McCaffrey to earn 16.9 carries in this game, on average, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among RBs.
Christian McCaffrey has earned 68.1% of his team’s carries this year, putting him in the 95th percentile among running backs.
Christian McCaffrey’s 113.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year signifies a a material gain in his running prowess over last year’s 68.0 mark.

Cons

Right now, the most sluggish paced offense in football (in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the San Francisco 49ers.
This year, the tough Browns run defense has allowed a meager 66.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing squads: the 4th-fewest in the NFL.
The Browns linebackers rank as the 3rd-best collection of LBs in football this year in regard to defending the run.

Projection

THE BLITZ
84
Rushing Yards