Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Alvin KamaraRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Saints vs. Bengals
Right now, Alvin Kamara’s rushing yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 60.5 (-110) after it opened @ 59.5 (-120).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 8th-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 42.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 5th-fastest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.44 seconds per snap.
- THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to total 15.0 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile among running backs.
- Alvin Kamara has garnered 58.0% of his offense’s carries this year, putting him in the 90th percentile among running backs.
- The New Orleans Saints O-line ranks as the 8th-best in football this year at blocking for rushers.
Cons
- The New Orleans Saints will be forced to start backup quarterback Andy Dalton in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Saints are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Alvin Kamara has been among the weakest running backs in football at generating extra running yardage, averaging just 2.51 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 15th percentile.
- Opposing offenses have rushed for the 4th-least yards in the league (just 94 per game) versus the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
59
Rushing Yards
59
Rushing Yards
