Week 6 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Alexander Mattison from EV Insight

Alexander MattisonRushing Yards

Right now, Alexander Mattison’s rushing yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-114/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 54.5 (-114) after it opened @ 53.5 (-114).

Pros

This week’s spread indicates a running game script for the Vikings, who are favored by 3 points.
Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Minnesota Vikings are expected by the model to run 64.4 plays on offense in this game: the 8th-highest number on the slate this week.
Alexander Mattison’s 54.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season conveys a a noteable boost in his running proficiency over last season’s 16.0 mark.
As it relates to the defensive ends’ role in run defense, Chicago’s DE corps has been very bad this year, profiling as the 5th-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Cons

The predictive model expects the Vikings as the 5th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 38.4% run rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The 10th-fewest plays in football have been run by the Vikings this year (just 56.2 per game on average).
While Alexander Mattison has accounted for 71.1% of his offense’s rush attempts in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a less important option in Minnesota’s ground game in this contest at 50.4%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
51
Rushing Yards