Week 6 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Aaron Jones from EV Insight

Aaron JonesRushing Yards

Right now, Aaron Jones’s rushing yards prop is set at 63.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 63.5 (-110) after it opened @ 59.5 (-115).

Pros

The Packers are a heavy 7.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 8th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 42.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Aaron Jones has garnered 47.2% of his offense’s carries this year, ranking in the 79th percentile among running backs.
The Green Bay Packers O-line ranks as the 2nd-best in the league this year at blocking for rushers.
Aaron Jones has run for significantly more yards per game (75.0) this year than he did last year (50.0).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-least plays run on the slate this week at 126.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New York Jets defense has had the 7th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, surrendering just 4.26 yards-per-carry.
The New York Jets have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the league). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.

Projection

THE BLITZ
56
Rushing Yards