Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Aaron JonesRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Packers vs. Jets
Right now, Aaron Jones’s rushing yards prop is set at 63.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 63.5 (-110) after it opened @ 59.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Packers are a heavy 7.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 8th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 42.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Aaron Jones has garnered 47.2% of his offense’s carries this year, ranking in the 79th percentile among running backs.
- The Green Bay Packers O-line ranks as the 2nd-best in the league this year at blocking for rushers.
- Aaron Jones has run for significantly more yards per game (75.0) this year than he did last year (50.0).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-least plays run on the slate this week at 126.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The New York Jets defense has had the 7th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, surrendering just 4.26 yards-per-carry.
- The New York Jets have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the league). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.
Projection
THE BLITZ
56
Rushing Yards
56
Rushing Yards
