Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Zach Gentry from EV Insight

Zach GentryReceiving Yards

Right now, Zach Gentry’s receiving yards prop is set at 22.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 22.5 (-115) after it opened @ 25.5 (-120).

Pros

The Steelers are a big 9.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 3rd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 61.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 135.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Zach Gentry to accrue 3.8 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 77th percentile among tight ends.

Cons

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has excelled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.68 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-least in the league.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties profile as the 5th-best collection of safeties in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line has afforded their quarterback a measly 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have incorporated play action on just 18.5% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 14.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-least in the league), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
26
Receiving Yards