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Chris Meaney
Zach GentryReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Steelers vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Zach Gentry’s receiving yards prop is set at 22.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 22.5 (-115) after it opened @ 25.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Steelers are a big 9.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 3rd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 61.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 135.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
- THE BLITZ projects Zach Gentry to accrue 3.8 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 77th percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has excelled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.68 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-least in the league.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties profile as the 5th-best collection of safeties in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line has afforded their quarterback a measly 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have incorporated play action on just 18.5% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 14.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-least in the league), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
26
Receiving Yards
26
Receiving Yards
