Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Zach Ertz from EV Insight

Zach ErtzReceiving Yards

Right now, Zach Ertz’s receiving yards prop is set at 32.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The Cardinals will be starting backup QB Joshua Dobbs in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
This game’s spread suggests a throwing game script for the Cardinals, who are -6.5-point underdogs.
This week, Zach Ertz is projected by the model to secure a spot in the 94th percentile among tight ends with 6.5 targets.
Zach Ertz has been a big part of his team’s passing attack, posting a Target Share of 23.0% this year, which ranks him in the 98th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
The Los Angeles Rams defense has conceded the most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (67.0) to tight ends this year.

Cons

The projections expect the Cardinals offensive approach to skew 5.5% more towards the ground game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with head coach Jonathan Gannon now calling the plays.
Right now, the 3rd-least pass-centric offense in football (55.8% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Cardinals.
Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Arizona Cardinals are forecasted by the predictive model to call just 62.8 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The 9th-lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Arizona Cardinals this year (a mere 55.2 per game on average).
Zach Ertz’s 30.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year signifies a a noteable drop-off in his receiving skills over last year’s 41.0 mark.

Projection

THE BLITZ
37
Receiving Yards