Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Zach ErtzReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Seahawks vs. Cardinals
Right now, Zach Ertz’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (-110) after it opened @ 46.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals offense to be the 3rd-fastest paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 26.67 seconds per snap.
- The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Zach Ertz has been used less as a potential target this season (85.4% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (73.2%).
- THE BLITZ projects Zach Ertz to total 7.1 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile among tight ends.
- Zach Ertz has totaled a colossal 53.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile among TEs.
Cons
- Opposing teams have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 3rd-least in football.
- Zach Ertz’s pass-catching efficiency has diminished this year, totaling just 5.67 yards-per-target compared to a 6.84 figure last year.
- The Arizona Cardinals O-line has allowed their QB just 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
- The Arizona Cardinals have faced a stacked the box on just 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
48
Receiving Yards
48
Receiving Yards
