Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Travis KelceReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Chiefs vs. Broncos
Right now, Travis Kelce’s receiving yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 65.5 (-110) after it opened @ 68.5 (-114).
Pros
- Right now, the most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (69.3% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Chiefs.
- Our trusted projections expect Travis Kelce to garner 8.6 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile among tight ends.
- The Denver Broncos pass defense has been torched for the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (85.4%) to tight ends this year (85.4%).
- This year, the weak Broncos defense has surrendered the most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing TEs: a monstrous 10.88 yards.
- The Broncos linebackers rank as the 2nd-worst unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
Cons
- With a 10.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are a massive favorite this week, suggesting much more of a reliance on running than their normal approach.
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to see only 125.7 offensive plays called: the 4th-lowest number among all games this week.
- Windy weather conditions (like the 20-mph being projected in this game) generally lead to lessened passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and increased rush volume.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year: 7th-fewest in the league.
- Travis Kelce has accrued many fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (60.0) this season than he did last season (80.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
63
Receiving Yards
63
Receiving Yards
