Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Stefon Diggs from EV Insight

Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards

Right now, Stefon Diggs’s receiving yards prop is set at 86.5 yards (-125/-105).

The public has bet the OVER up to 86.5 (-125) after it opened @ 83.5 (-115).

Pros

The model projects the Bills as the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 68.3% pass rate.
In this week’s contest, Stefon Diggs is predicted by the model to secure a spot in the 96th percentile among wideouts with 9.8 targets.
After accruing 104.0 air yards per game last season, Stefon Diggs has seen a big uptick this season, currently sitting at 114.0 per game.
Stefon Diggs’s 73.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 65.9.
As it relates to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Bills profiles as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year.

Cons

An extreme rushing game script is suggested by the Bills being a heavy 15.5-point favorite in this game.
Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bills are predicted by the projections to call only 62.9 plays on offense in this contest: the 7th-lowest number among all teams this week.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Giants defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the NFL.
Stefon Diggs’s 2.97 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season indicates a a significant regression in his effectiveness in space over last season’s 4.1% rate.

Projection

THE BLITZ
87
Receiving Yards