College Football Props of the Week: Week 4
Walter Waddell
Sam LaPortaReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Buccaneers vs. Lions
Right now, Sam LaPorta’s receiving yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-100/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 46.5 (-120) after it opened @ 46.5 (-110).
Pros
- Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Detroit Lions are forecasted by our trusted projection set to call 64.4 plays on offense in this contest: the 8th-most among all teams this week.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game versus the Buccaneers defense this year: 7th-most in football.
- The model projects Sam LaPorta to earn 6.4 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile among TEs.
- Sam LaPorta has been a big part of his team’s pass game, garnering a Target Share of 21.2% this year, which ranks him in the 95th percentile when it comes to TEs.
- Sam LaPorta has been among the leading TEs in the pass game this year, averaging an outstanding 52.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 95th percentile.
Cons
- This game’s spread indicates a rushing game script for the Lions, who are favored by 3 points.
- Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Lions to pass on 54.7% of their chances: the 6th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has shown strong efficiency against tight ends this year, giving up 5.10 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-fewest in football.
- As it relates to linebackers in covering receivers, Tampa Bay’s group of LBs has been great this year, projecting as the 7th-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards
43
Receiving Yards
