WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Rashee RiceReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Chiefs vs. Broncos
Right now, Rashee Rice’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-137/+100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 30.5 (-137) after it opened @ 30.5 (-113).
Pros
- Right now, the most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (69.3% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Chiefs.
- Rashee Rice has been among the best possession receivers in the league, hauling in an exceptional 74.9% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 80th percentile among WRs.
- The Broncos pass defense has been torched for the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (79.5%) versus wide receivers this year (79.5%).
- This year, the poor Broncos defense has been torched for the 3rd-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing wide receivers: a colossal 10.27 yards.
- The Broncos linebackers rank as the 2nd-worst unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
Cons
- With a 10.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are a massive favorite this week, suggesting much more of a reliance on running than their normal approach.
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to see only 125.7 offensive plays called: the 4th-lowest number among all games this week.
- Windy weather conditions (like the 20-mph being projected in this game) generally lead to lessened passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and increased rush volume.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year: 7th-fewest in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
33
Receiving Yards
33
Receiving Yards
