Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mike GesickiReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Dolphins vs. Vikings
Right now, Mike Gesicki’s receiving yards prop is set at 26.5 yards (-120/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 26.5 (-120) after it opened @ 21.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Miami Dolphins will be forced to use backup QB Skylar Thompson in this week’s game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Dolphins are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects Mike Gesicki to accumulate 3.9 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile among TEs.
- Mike Gesicki’s sure-handedness have improved this season, with his Completion% jumping from 67.2% to 83.7%.
- Mike Gesicki’s receiving efficiency has gotten better this season, compiling 9.74 yards-per-target compared to a measly 6.85 mark last season.
Cons
- The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 4th-most sluggish paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.95 seconds per play.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 34.0 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 10th-least in football.
- Mike Gesicki has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (54.8% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (78.7%).
- Mike Gesicki has compiled far fewer air yards this year (20.0 per game) than he did last year (56.0 per game).
Projection
THE BLITZ
24
Receiving Yards
24
Receiving Yards
