Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Michael PittmanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Jaguars vs. Colts
Right now, Michael Pittman’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-127/-103).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 59.5 (-103) after it opened @ 60.5 (-113).
Pros
- The Colts are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
- The leading projections forecast the Colts to call the 3rd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.4 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- The Indianapolis Colts have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 61.0 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Jaguars defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
- With a fantastic 63.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (83rd percentile) this year, Michael Pittman rates among the leading wide receivers in the game in the league.
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect the Colts offensive gameplan to skew 1.7% more towards the run game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with head coach Shane Steichen now calling the plays.
- The predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 8th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 56.1% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Jacksonville’s group of CBs has been phenomenal this year, grading out as the 5th-best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
69
Receiving Yards
69
Receiving Yards
