Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Michael PittmanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Colts vs. Jaguars
Right now, Michael Pittman’s receiving yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (+108/-148).
The public has bet the OVER up to 69.5 (+108) after it opened @ 66.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Colts to run the 8th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Indianapolis Colts have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 64.8 plays per game.
- Michael Pittman has run a route on 96.9% of his offense’s passing plays this year, putting him in the 95th percentile among wideouts.
- THE BLITZ projects Michael Pittman to accrue 8.8 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 90th percentile among wide receivers.
- Michael Pittman has posted many more receiving yards per game (75.0) this season than he did last season (63.0).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 9th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 58.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 33.6 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 8th-least in the NFL.
- Michael Pittman has posted significantly fewer air yards this year (64.0 per game) than he did last year (75.0 per game).
- The Indianapolis Colts O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has given up the 9th-lowest Completion% in the league (63.5%) vs. WRs this year (63.5%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
75
Receiving Yards
75
Receiving Yards
