Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Marquise BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Seahawks vs. Cardinals
Right now, Marquise Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-145/+106).
The public has bet the OVER up to 70.5 (-145) after it opened @ 68.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals offense to be the 3rd-fastest paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 26.67 seconds per snap.
- The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Marquise Brown to accrue 9.2 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 93rd percentile among wide receivers.
- Marquise Brown has accrued a whopping 108.0 air yards per game this year: 97th percentile among WRs.
- Marquise Brown has accrued many more receiving yards per game (86.0) this season than he did last season (63.0).
Cons
- Opposing teams have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 3rd-least in football.
- Marquise Brown has been a much bigger part of his team’s offense this season, staying on the field for 94.7% of snaps compared to just 79.8% last season.
- The Seattle Seahawks defense has allowed the least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 119.0) vs. wide receivers this year.
- The Arizona Cardinals O-line has allowed their QB just 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
- The Arizona Cardinals have faced a stacked the box on just 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
72
Receiving Yards
72
Receiving Yards
