NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Kyle PittsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Falcons vs. 49ers
Right now, Kyle Pitts’s receiving yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the OVER up to 40.5 (-105) after it opened @ 36.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Falcons are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Kyle Pitts to earn 6.9 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 95th percentile among tight ends.
- Kyle Pitts has put up significantly more air yards this year (80.0 per game) than he did last year (70.0 per game).
- Kyle Pitts’s 51.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 99th percentile for tight ends.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 4th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 55.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to run the 4th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Atlanta Falcons have run the 4th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.2 plays per game.
- Kyle Pitts has accumulated quite a few less receiving yards per game (36.0) this season than he did last season (54.0).
- Kyle Pitts’s receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 62.0% to 44.1%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards
53
Receiving Yards
