WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Kendrick BourneReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Raiders vs. Patriots
Right now, Kendrick Bourne’s receiving yards prop is set at 38.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the New England Patriots are expected by the model to call 64.4 plays on offense in this contest: the 8th-highest number among all teams this week.
- The New England Patriots have called the 7th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 61.4 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- In this game, Kendrick Bourne is anticipated by our trusted projection set to secure a spot in the 79th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 7.5 targets.
- After averaging 31.0 air yards per game last year, Kendrick Bourne has made big progress this year, now pacing 101.0 per game.
Cons
- With a 57.8% rate of throwing the ball (context-neutralized) this year, the 7th-least pass-oriented offense in the league has been the New England Patriots.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game against the Raiders defense this year: 8th-fewest in the league.
- As it relates to pocket protection (and the ramifications it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the New England Patriots profiles as the 6th-worst in the league this year.
- Kendrick Bourne’s receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 74.8% to 54.8%.
- Kendrick Bourne’s 7.3 adjusted yards per target this season conveys a a remarkable drop-off in his pass-catching ability over last season’s 9.6 mark.
Projection
THE BLITZ
65
Receiving Yards
65
Receiving Yards
