Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Kendrick Bourne from EV Insight

Kendrick BourneReceiving Yards

Right now, Kendrick Bourne’s receiving yards prop is set at 38.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the New England Patriots are expected by the model to call 64.4 plays on offense in this contest: the 8th-highest number among all teams this week.
The New England Patriots have called the 7th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 61.4 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
In this game, Kendrick Bourne is anticipated by our trusted projection set to secure a spot in the 79th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 7.5 targets.
After averaging 31.0 air yards per game last year, Kendrick Bourne has made big progress this year, now pacing 101.0 per game.

Cons

With a 57.8% rate of throwing the ball (context-neutralized) this year, the 7th-least pass-oriented offense in the league has been the New England Patriots.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game against the Raiders defense this year: 8th-fewest in the league.
As it relates to pocket protection (and the ramifications it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the New England Patriots profiles as the 6th-worst in the league this year.
Kendrick Bourne’s receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 74.8% to 54.8%.
Kendrick Bourne’s 7.3 adjusted yards per target this season conveys a a remarkable drop-off in his pass-catching ability over last season’s 9.6 mark.

Projection

THE BLITZ
65
Receiving Yards