NBA Prop of the Day
Jake Silverman
Kadarius ToneyReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Chiefs vs. Broncos
Right now, Kadarius Toney’s receiving yards prop is set at 31.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 31.5 (-110) after it opened @ 32.5 (-110).
Pros
- Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 60.2% of their plays: the 8th-highest clip among all teams this week.
- Kadarius Toney has accumulated many more adjusted receiving yards per game (17.0) this year than he did last year (0.0).
- With an excellent 8.07 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (93rd percentile) this year, Kadarius Toney has been as one of the leading WRs in the game in football in space.
- The Broncos pass defense has been torched for the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (80.6%) versus wide receivers this year (80.6%).
- This year, the poor Broncos defense has been torched for the 3rd-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing wide receivers: a colossal 10.42 yards.
Cons
- With a 10.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are a massive favorite this week, suggesting much more of a reliance on running than their normal approach.
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to see only 125.5 offensive plays called: the 3rd-lowest number among all games this week.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year: 9th-fewest in the league.
- With a sizeable 22.9% snap rate (22nd percentile) this year, Kadarius Toney stands among the running backs with the most usage in the league.
- Kadarius Toney has notched a mere 9.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 25th percentile among wideouts.
Projection
THE BLITZ
30
Receiving Yards
30
Receiving Yards
