Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jordan AddisonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Bears vs. Vikings
Right now, Jordan Addison’s receiving yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the OVER up to 56.5 (-114) after it opened @ 53.5 (-114).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to be the 5th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 61.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Minnesota Vikings are expected by the model to run 64.4 plays on offense in this game: the 8th-highest number on the slate this week.
- The Chicago Bears defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing offenses to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (38.4 per game) this year.
- In this contest, Jordan Addison is predicted by the model to rank in the 87th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 8.2 targets.
- The model projects Jordan Addison to be much less involved in his offense’s pass attack in this week’s game (7.6% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (14.1% in games he has played).
Cons
- This week’s spread indicates a running game script for the Vikings, who are favored by 3 points.
- The 10th-fewest plays in football have been run by the Vikings this year (just 56.2 per game on average).
- Jordan Addison has been among the worst wideouts in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 1st percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
57
Receiving Yards
57
Receiving Yards
