Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Jake Ferguson from EV Insight

Jake FergusonReceiving Yards

Right now, Jake Ferguson’s receiving yards prop is set at 36.5 yards (+100/-130).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 36.5 (-130) after it opened @ 36.5 (-115).

Pros

The Cowboys have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Chargers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, enticing opposing offenses to attempt the 4th-most passes in the league (40.8 per game) this year.
The leading projections forecast Jake Ferguson to accrue 5.5 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 87th percentile among tight ends.
Jake Ferguson has been a much bigger part of his team’s pass game this season (17.1% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (4.5%).
After averaging 4.0 air yards per game last year, Jake Ferguson has been rising this year, currently pacing 26.0 per game.

Cons

Our trusted projections expect the Dallas Cowboys as the least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 56.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Dallas Cowboys are projected by the projection model to call 66.6 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.
Jake Ferguson’s 76.1% Adjusted Catch% this season reflects a a significant drop-off in his pass-catching ability over last season’s 84.5% rate.
This year, the stout Los Angeles Chargers defense has given up a meager 65.4% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 7th-best rate in football.
This year, the strong Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has yielded the 3rd-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing TEs: a paltry 3.4 YAC.

Projection

THE BLITZ
44
Receiving Yards