NBA Prop of the Day
Jake Silverman
Irv SmithReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Bengals vs. Seahawks
Right now, Irv Smith’s receiving yards prop is set at 17.5 yards (-118/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 17.5 (-110) after it opened @ 18.5 (-114).
Pros
- The projections expect the Bengals as the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 62.8% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the projections to see 128.8 total plays called: the 4th-most among all games this week.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 42.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Seahawks defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
- Irv Smith Jr.’s 70.1% Route Participation Rate this season reflects a a significant gain in his air attack volume over last season’s 55.6% figure.
- In regards to air yards, Irv Smith Jr. grades out in the towering 75th percentile among tight ends since the start of last season, accruing a colossal 21.0 per game.
Cons
- This week’s spread indicates a rushing game script for the Bengals, who are favored by 3 points.
- Irv Smith Jr.’s receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 73.2% to 56.1%.
- Irv Smith Jr.’s pass-catching efficiency has declined this year, totaling a mere 2.97 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 5.82 figure last year.
- With a bad 3.43 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (23rd percentile) since the start of last season, Irv Smith Jr. ranks as one of the best pass-catching TEs in the NFL in space.
Projection
THE BLITZ
24
Receiving Yards
24
Receiving Yards
