Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Irv Smith from EV Insight

Irv SmithReceiving Yards

Right now, Irv Smith’s receiving yards prop is set at 17.5 yards (-118/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 17.5 (-110) after it opened @ 18.5 (-114).

Pros

The projections expect the Bengals as the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 62.8% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the projections to see 128.8 total plays called: the 4th-most among all games this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 42.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Seahawks defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
Irv Smith Jr.’s 70.1% Route Participation Rate this season reflects a a significant gain in his air attack volume over last season’s 55.6% figure.
In regards to air yards, Irv Smith Jr. grades out in the towering 75th percentile among tight ends since the start of last season, accruing a colossal 21.0 per game.

Cons

This week’s spread indicates a rushing game script for the Bengals, who are favored by 3 points.
Irv Smith Jr.’s receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 73.2% to 56.1%.
Irv Smith Jr.’s pass-catching efficiency has declined this year, totaling a mere 2.97 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 5.82 figure last year.
With a bad 3.43 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (23rd percentile) since the start of last season, Irv Smith Jr. ranks as one of the best pass-catching TEs in the NFL in space.

Projection

THE BLITZ
24
Receiving Yards