Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Hunter HenryReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Raiders vs. Patriots
Right now, Hunter Henry’s receiving yards prop is set at 32.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 32.5 (-110) after it opened @ 33.5 (-114).
Pros
- Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the New England Patriots are expected by the model to call 64.4 plays on offense in this contest: the 8th-highest number among all teams this week.
- The New England Patriots have called the 7th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 61.4 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Hunter Henry has run a route on 78.1% of his team’s dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 89th percentile when it comes to TEs.
- The leading projections forecast Hunter Henry to total 5.0 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 81st percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- With a 57.8% rate of throwing the ball (context-neutralized) this year, the 7th-least pass-oriented offense in the league has been the New England Patriots.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game against the Raiders defense this year: 8th-fewest in the league.
- As it relates to pocket protection (and the ramifications it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the New England Patriots profiles as the 6th-worst in the league this year.
- Hunter Henry’s 7.4 adjusted yards per target this season marks a a noteworthy decline in his receiving talent over last season’s 8.5 mark.
- Hunter Henry’s ability to grind out extra yardage has tailed off this year, notching just 3.12 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 4.85 mark last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
37
Receiving Yards
37
Receiving Yards
