Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Hayden Hurst from EV Insight

Hayden HurstReceiving Yards

Right now, Hayden Hurst’s receiving yards prop is set at 23.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 23.5 (-110) after it opened @ 20.5 (-110).

Pros

The predictive model expects the Panthers offense to tilt 5.1% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Thomas Brown now calling the plays.
The Panthers are a massive 14-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
Our trusted projections expect the Panthers as the 6th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 61.4% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The 5th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Panthers this year (a monstrous 63.6 per game on average).
When it comes to air yards, Hayden Hurst grades out in the towering 78th percentile among tight ends this year, averaging a whopping 24.0 per game.

Cons

Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Carolina Panthers are projected by the model to call only 62.9 plays on offense in this game: the 7th-fewest on the slate this week.
Hayden Hurst’s 22.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 28.8.
The the Carolina Panthers O-line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
Hayden Hurst’s 20.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season marks a a noteworthy reduction in his pass-catching talent over last season’s 33.0 mark.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has shown good efficiency versus tight ends this year, conceding 6.41 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-fewest in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
22
Receiving Yards