Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Garrett Wilson from EV Insight

Garrett WilsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-129/-106).

The public has bet the OVER up to 57.5 (-129) after it opened @ 50.5 (-117).

Pros

The New York Jets will be rolling out backup QB Zach Wilson in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this game, implying more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.
The Eagles defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (41.0 per game) this year.
Garrett Wilson has gone out for fewer passes this season (98.4% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last season (86.4%).
The projections expect Garrett Wilson to accrue 9.3 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 94th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

Cons

The Jets have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
At the present time, the 5th-slowest paced offense in the league (adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Jets.
After accruing 94.0 air yards per game last year, Garrett Wilson has significantly declined this year, now averaging 87.0 per game.
With a subpar 6.9 adjusted yards per target (24th percentile) this year, Garrett Wilson has been as one of the weakest wide receivers in the game in the league.
With a subpar 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (1st percentile) this year, Garrett Wilson stands among the best pass-catching WRs in football in picking up extra yardage.

Projection

THE BLITZ
61
Receiving Yards