Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Garrett Wilson from EV Insight

Garrett WilsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 43.5 (-110) after it opened @ 44.5 (-115).

Pros

The Jets are a giant 7.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New York Jets have run the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 65.0 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Garrett Wilson to accrue 6.7 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 75th percentile among WRs.
Garrett Wilson has been a key part of his team’s offense, posting a Target Share of 20.7% this year, which puts him in the 81st percentile among wideouts.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 2nd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.2 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in the NFL.
The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 9th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
Garrett Wilson has been among the weakest wide receivers in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 1st percentile.
The New York Jets have faced a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
47
Receiving Yards