Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Garrett WilsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Packers vs. Jets
Right now, Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 43.5 (-110) after it opened @ 44.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jets are a giant 7.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The New York Jets have run the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 65.0 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Garrett Wilson to accrue 6.7 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 75th percentile among WRs.
- Garrett Wilson has been a key part of his team’s offense, posting a Target Share of 20.7% this year, which puts him in the 81st percentile among wideouts.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 2nd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 29.2 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in the NFL.
- The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 9th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
- Garrett Wilson has been among the weakest wide receivers in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 1st percentile.
- The New York Jets have faced a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
47
Receiving Yards
47
Receiving Yards
