Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Evan EngramReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Jaguars vs. Colts
Right now, Evan Engram’s receiving yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 44.5 (-110) after it opened @ 41.5 (-114).
Pros
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by the projections to see 136.2 offensive plays called: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 64.2 plays per game.
- With an elite 84.1% Route Participation Rate (97th percentile) this year, Evan Engram places among the TEs with the highest volume in football.
- Evan Engram has been among the top pass-catching tight ends this year, averaging an impressive 48.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 93rd percentile.
- This year, the poor Indianapolis Colts defense has been torched for a massive 63.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends: the 4th-worst in the league.
Cons
- A rushing game script is suggested by the Jaguars being a 3.5-point favorite in this week’s contest.
- Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Jacksonville Jaguars to pass on 56.3% of their plays: the 9th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
- The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- When talking about protecting the passer (and the importance it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Jaguars profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year.
- This year, the formidable Colts pass defense has surrendered the 7th-least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing TEs: a feeble 3.9 YAC.
Projection
THE BLITZ
50
Receiving Yards
50
Receiving Yards
