Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for DK Metcalf from EV Insight

DK MetcalfReceiving Yards

Right now, DK Metcalf’s receiving yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 69.5 (-115) after it opened @ 68.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks offense as the 10th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 27.62 seconds per play.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects DK Metcalf to total 10.0 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 96th percentile among wide receivers.
DK Metcalf has been heavily involved in his team’s passing offense, posting a Target Share of 28.5% this year, which puts him in the 96th percentile among WRs.
DK Metcalf has compiled significantly more air yards this year (104.0 per game) than he did last year (96.0 per game).

Cons

The Arizona Cardinals defense has conceded the 6th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 140.0) versus wideouts this year.
The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has shown good efficiency versus wide receivers this year, allowing 7.22 yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-least in football.
The Arizona Cardinals pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone for it on 4th down a lowly 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in the NFL), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
90
Receiving Yards