Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Devin DuvernayReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Giants vs. Ravens
Right now, Devin Duvernay’s receiving yards prop is set at 42.5 yards (-131/-104).
The public has bet the OVER up to 42.5 (-131) after it opened @ 37.5 (-115).
Pros
- The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Devin Duvernay has been a more important option in his offense’s passing offense this season (14.8% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (8.0%).
- Devin Duvernay has accrued far more air yards this season (55.0 per game) than he did last season (18.0 per game).
- The Baltimore Ravens O-line profiles as the 9th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing game stats across the board.
- Devin Duvernay has accumulated quite a few more receiving yards per game (50.0) this season than he did last season (19.0).
Cons
- The Ravens are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 6th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 56.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run among all games this week at 125.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Baltimore Ravens have called the 3rd-least plays in football this year, totaling a mere 53.2 plays per game.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game against the New York Giants defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
51
Receiving Yards
51
Receiving Yards
