WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Dawson KnoxReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Bills vs. Giants
Right now, Dawson Knox’s receiving yards prop is set at 34.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the OVER up to 34.5 (-114) after it opened @ 33.5 (-114).
Pros
- The model projects the Bills as the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 68.3% pass rate.
- Dawson Knox has run a route on 66.2% of his offense’s dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 75th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
- This week, Dawson Knox is anticipated by the predictive model to land in the 75th percentile among TEs with 4.1 targets.
- As it relates to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Bills profiles as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year.
- This year, the porous New York Giants defense has been torched for the 2nd-most yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing tight ends: a colossal 8.58 YAC.
Cons
- An extreme rushing game script is suggested by the Bills being a heavy 15.5-point favorite in this game.
- Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bills are predicted by the projections to call only 62.9 plays on offense in this contest: the 7th-lowest number among all teams this week.
- Opposing teams have averaged 29.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Giants defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the NFL.
- Dawson Knox has accrued significantly fewer air yards this season (25.0 per game) than he did last season (33.0 per game).
- Dawson Knox has totaled many fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (16.0) this year than he did last year (34.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
28
Receiving Yards
28
Receiving Yards
