WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
David NjokuReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Browns vs. Patriots
Right now, David Njoku’s receiving yards prop is set at 36.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 36.5 (-110) after it opened @ 39.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Cleveland Browns have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 65.0 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
- David Njoku has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (80.9% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (54.1%).
- THE BLITZ projects David Njoku to accrue 5.6 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 90th percentile among TEs.
- David Njoku has accumulated a colossal 36.0 air yards per game this year: 90th percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- The Browns are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 49.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 126.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- The New England Patriots defense has allowed the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 25.0) versus TEs this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
38
Receiving Yards
38
Receiving Yards
