Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Davante Adams from EV Insight

Davante AdamsReceiving Yards

Right now, Davante Adams’s receiving yards prop is set at 76.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 76.5 (-110) after it opened @ 66.5 (-110).

Pros

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 60.8% of their chances: the 7th-highest rate on the slate this week.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 128.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
In this week’s contest, Davante Adams is projected by the predictive model to place in the 98th percentile among wide receivers with 10.7 targets.
Davante Adams’s 83.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive volume) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 75.0.

Cons

The Raiders have run the 5th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a mere 53.0 plays per game.
After accumulating 124.0 air yards per game last year, Davante Adams has significantly declined this year, currently averaging 116.0 per game.
Davante Adams’s talent in grinding out extra yardage have declined this year, notching just 3.46 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 4.95 mark last year.
The Patriots pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.08 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-fewest in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
98
Receiving Yards