Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Darnell MooneyReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Bears vs. Commanders
Right now, Darnell Mooney’s receiving yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 44.5 (-110) after it opened @ 41.5 (-115).
Pros
- Darnell Mooney has been a big part of his team’s passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 25.6% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.
- Darnell Mooney’s ability to grind out extra yardage has gotten better this season, totaling 15.40 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to just 3.28 rate last season.
- The Washington Commanders defense has surrendered the 4th-most receiving yards per game in the league (184.0) to wide receivers this year.
- The Washington Commanders pass defense has displayed bad efficiency versus wide receivers this year, conceding 10.23 yards-per-target to the position: the most in the NFL.
- The Washington Commanders cornerbacks profile as the 2nd-worst group of CBs in the league this year in pass coverage.
Cons
- The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 45.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-least plays run on the slate this week at 127.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Chicago Bears have called the least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 49.2 plays per game.
- Darnell Mooney has notched far fewer air yards this season (71.0 per game) than he did last season (88.0 per game).
Projection
THE BLITZ
48
Receiving Yards
48
Receiving Yards
