Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Daniel BellingerReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Giants vs. Ravens
Right now, Daniel Bellinger’s receiving yards prop is set at 20.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 20.5 (-110) after it opened @ 22.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Giants are a 5.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
- The New York Giants have called the 8th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 61.2 plays per game.
- The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 42.6 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.
- The Baltimore Ravens defense has yielded the 5th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (65.0) vs. TEs this year.
Cons
- The Giants have been the 6th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 57.0% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Giants to call the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The New York Giants O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
- The Baltimore Ravens safeties grade out as the 10th-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
- The New York Giants offensive line has given their QB a measly 2.41 seconds before getting pressured (7th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
24
Receiving Yards
24
Receiving Yards
