Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Dalton Schultz

Dalton SchultzReceiving Yards

Right now, Dalton Schultz’s receiving yards prop is set at 31.5 yards (+110/-140).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 31.5 (-140) after it opened @ 31.5 (-115).

Pros

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by the predictive model to have 137.2 offensive plays called: the most among all games this week.
The Houston Texans have called the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 62.8 plays per game.
The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.
The predictive model expects Dalton Schultz to total 5.6 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 88th percentile among tight ends.
When talking about air yards, Dalton Schultz ranks in the towering 92nd percentile among tight ends this year, averaging a whopping 42.0 per game.

Cons

The Houston Texans have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The model projects the Texans as the 6th-least pass-oriented offense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 57.8% pass rate.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point regression in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive usage) from last year to this one, Dalton Schultz has been utilized much less in his team’s pass attack.
Dalton Schultz has compiled substantially fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (30.0) this season than he did last season (38.0).
The Saints pass defense has allowed the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (56.1%) to tight ends since the start of last season (56.1%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
38
Receiving Yards