NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Dalton SchultzReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Texans vs. Saints
Right now, Dalton Schultz’s receiving yards prop is set at 31.5 yards (+110/-140).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 31.5 (-140) after it opened @ 31.5 (-115).
Pros
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by the predictive model to have 137.2 offensive plays called: the most among all games this week.
- The Houston Texans have called the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 62.8 plays per game.
- The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.
- The predictive model expects Dalton Schultz to total 5.6 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 88th percentile among tight ends.
- When talking about air yards, Dalton Schultz ranks in the towering 92nd percentile among tight ends this year, averaging a whopping 42.0 per game.
Cons
- The Houston Texans have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The model projects the Texans as the 6th-least pass-oriented offense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 57.8% pass rate.
- With a RATE1-RATE2 point regression in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive usage) from last year to this one, Dalton Schultz has been utilized much less in his team’s pass attack.
- Dalton Schultz has compiled substantially fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (30.0) this season than he did last season (38.0).
- The Saints pass defense has allowed the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (56.1%) to tight ends since the start of last season (56.1%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
38
Receiving Yards
38
Receiving Yards
