Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Dallas Goedert from EV Insight

Dallas GoedertReceiving Yards

Right now, Dallas Goedert’s receiving yards prop is set at 38.5 yards (-135/-101).

The public has bet the OVER up to 38.5 (-135) after it opened @ 36.5 (-115).

Pros

With regard to a defense’s impact on tempo, at 27.40 seconds per snap, the projections expect the Eagles as the 6th-fastest in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment.
With an exceptional 91.2% Route Participation% (100th percentile) this year, Dallas Goedert places among the tight ends with the most usage in the league.
In this game, Dallas Goedert is predicted by the model to place in the 86th percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.5 targets.
Dallas Goedert has posted a colossal 36.0 air yards per game this year: 87th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
The the Eagles offensive line grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.

Cons

A rushing game script is implied by the Eagles being a 6.5-point favorite in this game.
The leading projections forecast the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 2nd-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 51.6% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game versus the Jets defense this year: 10th-fewest in the NFL.
Dallas Goedert has totaled many fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (38.0) this season than he did last season (58.0).
Dallas Goedert’s ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Catch% decreasing from 80.2% to 74.1%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
42
Receiving Yards